TN coast on alert as Cyclone ‘Ward' prowls Bay of Bengal | cyclone ward

The Tamil Nadu coast has been put under cyclone alert on Friday after the previous day's depression intensified double-quick into a deep depression and further into a cyclonic storm, named ‘Ward.'

India Meteorological Department said Tropical Cyclone Ward lay centred 550 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 700 km south-southeast of Chennai on Friday afternoon.

The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction towards Tamil Nadu coast during the next two days. The IMD's outlook is exactly in agreement with that of the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) and the Tropical Cyclone Page of the US Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre (FNMOC).

The IMD has rightfully expressed doubts about the onward movement of ‘Ward' as did international models thanks to the persistence of westerly flows from a prevailing western disturbance affecting northwest India.

It said that the satellite-derived steering wind in the upper levels would go to suggest a northerly to northeasterly movement of the system, which could cause it to avoid taking a swipe of the Tamil Nadu coast.

But a precipitation model of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) tends to suggest that the westerlies would cause Tropical Cyclone Ward to steer itself north-northeast after taking a shot at the Chennai coast over the next two days.

According to the NCEP, the rampaging westerlies would drive away ‘Ward' into coastal Bay of Bengal waters in a north-northeasterly direction all the way into the Bangladesh/Myanmar coast, and fling the weakened system into the hinterland.

Once again, IMD has thoughtfully decided to strike the line of caution saying that it has kept the system behaviour ‘under close watch.' But in any case, the cyclone alert is ‘on' for the Tamil Nadu coast.

MAY HOLD ON

On Friday evening, the FNMOC located the system north to northeast of east Sri Lanka but perpendicular to the Tamil Nadu coast. The question now would be which direction it would take for onward movement.

At least a couple of international models continued to suggest that slow-moving system would be able to hold on its own and race down the last-mile stretch towards the Tamil Nadu within ‘the next two days.'

And this two-day stay over warm sea-waters is critical in terms of not just enabling it to earn its spurs by feeding on available moisture but also ensuring that the westerlies weaken by the time it hits the home stretch towards Tamil Nadu....

Soure From : THE HINDU

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